Early History of the Delphi Method

The Delphi method was invented by RAND Corporation in the mid 1960's. Its early uses were to help the Defense Department improve (1) forecasts of potential adversaries and likely trouble spots and (2) decisions as to which new weapons systems should be developed in light of those forecasts.

The Delphi method's central concepts were established in the first projects. Briefly, here's how they were conducted:

1.	A diverse panel, including experts in relevant fields, was nominated and recruited;
2.	Each panel member received by mail a kit containing background on the topics at issue and a questionnaire designed to elicit their predictions, opinions, reasons, comments, and suggestions for additional questions.  Panelists were assured their responses would be anonymous;
3.	Questionnaires were mailed back to RAND Corporation. Tabulations, summaries of textual answers, reasons, and comments were prepared. That information and a second-round questionnaire were mailed to panelists. They were asked to respond in light of results from the first round. That usually involved both reassessing previous answers and addressing added issues;
4.	Additional rounds were conducted until it became clear that the group's outlook had stabilized and significant further movement would be unlikely.

RAND Corporation was able to demonstrate that better forecasts were reached using Delphi than any other method. Since then, thousands of projects have proven that Delphi is the technique of choice for arriving at superior analyses, policies, and operating decisions.