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Understanding the Delphi Method Today's
world presents many issues that are too complex and require too many kinds
of specialized expertise for one person to address them comprehensively and
with confidence.
Delphi is a systematic,
flexible way for a well selected group to collaborate in dealing with
designated issues. Key elements of the method are:
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| 1. |
A deliberately constituted panel; |
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| 2. |
Full and flexible interaction between panelists; |
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| 3. |
Comprehensive feedback of panelists' input; |
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| 4. |
Guaranteed anonymity of contributions; |
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| 5. |
Successive iterations through the issues
until consensus is reached or further rounds are seen as unlikely to yield significant
change; |
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| 6. |
Project guidance by an experienced
consultant/moderator. | |
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A typical Delphi panel consists of experts in
disciplines relevant to the questions at issue, executives, and
representatives of affected constituencies. Insofar as possible, a
panel should cover the waterfront.
As necessary, panelists receive background
information on the subjects to be addressed in the project.
Projects begin with an opening questionnaire designed
to elicit participants' views, reasons, comments, and suggestions for approaching
the defined objectives. At intervals, panelists receive summaries and
tabulations of the group's input. Projects evolve in response to
panelists' interactions.
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